Solar payback in New South Wales: how long it really takes
Payback is the cost after rebates divided by what you save each year. Both halves move a lot, which is why an honest answer for New South Wales is a range from about 6–9 years for a heavy user down to 10+ years for a small one.
What is different about New South Wales
At 30c a unit New South Wales sits 4th of 8 on retail price, with a feed-in tariff of 2c. It averages 4.8 peak sun hours a day.
The four households
| Household uses | Their bill a quarter | System | After rebates | Saves a year | Pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 kWh | $373 | 5–6.6kW solar | $5,470 to $7,500 | $410–$610 | 10+ years |
| 15 kWh | $510 | 6.6kW solar | $6,250 to $8,250 | $560–$850 | 9–10+ years |
| 22 kWh | $701 | 10–13kW solar | $8,000 to $13,000 | $870–$1,300 | 7–10+ years |
| 30 kWh | $919 | 10–13kW solar | $8,000 to $13,000 | $1,090–$1,640 | 6–9 years |
Panels only, someone home part of the day, after rebates in New South Wales.
Why the range is so wide
Two things move it. The first is the price you pay, and the spread between quotes for the identical system is larger than most people expect. The second is self-consumption. The same 15 kWh household saves $700–$1,040 a year if someone is home most days and $450–$680 if the house is empty, which moves payback from 7–9 years to 10+ years.
What a quoted payback figure is usually hiding
Any payback number rests on an assumed self-consumption percentage and an assumed feed-in rate. Neither is usually written on the quote. A projection built on 50 per cent self-consumption for a house that is empty from eight until six is not a lie about the price, it is a lie about the household, and it is worth hundreds a year of imaginary saving.
Ask for both assumptions in writing. In New South Wales the feed-in rate should be about 2c; if the projection used more than that, ask where the number came from.
$2,000 difference.
That is the gap between two quotes for the same 6.6kW system in New South Wales, in the same week. Not build quality, not a better job. Overheads, how full the diary is that month, and what the person at your kitchen table thinks you will agree to. On solar with a battery the same gap is $7,900.
Closing that gap is what I do. I already know what installers in your area are quoting this month for this equipment, so I get you the bottom of that range for the same system other companies charge thousands more for. It costs you nothing. The installer pays me, and only if you go ahead, which is why there is no reason for me to push you at a bigger system than you need or at a dearer installer.
Get your own numbers, then get them priced properly
The table above is four example households. Two minutes of questions gets you your system size, what it should cost after rebates in New South Wales, and a ten-year projection built on your roof and your usage. Then I find the bottom of that price range for you.
Run my numbers, freeNo installer buys placement or ranking here, and nothing reaches an installer unless you ask.
Common questions
What is the solar payback period in New South Wales?
Between 6–9 years and 10+ years depending on household size, with a mid-sized home at 9–10+ years. Occupancy moves it as much as system size does.
How is solar payback calculated?
Cost after rebates divided by the annual saving. The saving depends on how much generation is used on site rather than exported.
Why do payback estimates differ so much between quotes?
Because they use different self-consumption and feed-in assumptions. In New South Wales the feed-in rate is about 2c; a projection built on more overstates the saving.